Addressing the issue poverty require actions at different levels of society, cutting across governments, civil society, and the private sector.  The 2023 General Elections have been concluded and new administrations will emerge at federal and state levels on May 29.  The expectation that many governments are gearing up to roll-out policies and programmes to fulfil electioneering campaign promises is reasonable. In this regard, the imperative to position poverty eradication as the focal issue on which governance agenda should be built around is more critical than any other time in our history.

However, there are clear manifestations of “urban” and “elite” bias concerning government attention and distribution of public services.  Currently, the dominant logic in political circles appear to minimise the negative implication of social exclusion, one of the key factors responsible for widespread poverty in Nigeria. While this socially insensitive and discriminatory tendency is common to both state and federal governments, state governments are by far guiltier.  State governments often devote considerable resources and attention to mega-infrastructure projects in urban centres. While some of these projects have their benefits, oftentimes the impact on poverty reduction is minimal.

However, a new paradigm may be emerging! Before the 2023 General Elections, political leadership was usually derived from processes that do not require the input of many marginalised and systemically excluded groups.  However, times have changed.  Courtesy of technological integration, election rigging, which is the default mode of operation of the political class is now a lot more difficult.

While it is not yet “uhuru”, the magnitude of improvement appears to be sufficient to force a change of attitude of the political class towards low-income electorate. Going forward, the deployment of governance models characterised by social and economic inclusion that will reduce multi-dimensional poverty is now a strong political imperative.

Tackling the issue of poverty requires bold and visionary leadership, the type that has not been seen since the 50s and early 60s, courtesy of Chief Obafemi Awolowo in the Western Region, Sir Ahmadu Bello in the Northern Region and Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe in the Eastern Region. In the 1960s, President Lyndon Johnson of the USA envisioned what he called the “Great Society”. This was operationally translated into an ambitious series of policy initiatives, legislation, and programmes with the main goals of ending poverty, reducing crime, abolishing inequality and developing the economically depressed regions of the country. Before Johnson’s “Great Society”, there was the “New Deal”, a series of programmes with nearly similar objectives under President Roosevelt in the 1930s.

Embarking on such an ambitious policy agenda within the context of Nigeria’s current macroeconomic condition and medium-term outlook demands urgent and inevitable fiscal and monetary policy reforms. The incoming administration at the federal level will face the challenge of securing public support to sustain the proposed fuel subsidy removal. Other challenges include financial adjustment imperatives associated with the management of the ever-growing debt and budget deficits. On the monetary policy side, the incoming federal administration will also contend also with the implications of exchange rate reform while reversing the negative fallouts of the self-inflicted social and economic injuries arising from the cash swap policy of the CBN. Therefore, due diligence must be undertaken to ensure that the poor and low-income earners do not bear the burden of macroeconomic policy reform disproportionately, as is usually the case.

On the contrary, deliberate measures should be taken to battle the monster of corruption. This is to ensure that financial gains of economic reform are channelled to the poor in a transparent manner in form of social protection, humanitarian support and economic empowerment.  To some extent, such actions will compensate for years of neglect and social exclusion that induced their poverty in the first instance.

In pursuing the humanitarian and social protection objective, the incoming administration will benefit from one of the legacies of President Buhari’s government, the establishment of the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development. The ministry currently manages the National Social Investment Programme that includes the National Social Safety Nets Programmes. Recent developments regarding the enactment of legislative backing for the establishment of the National Social Investment Agency is equally gladdening as it potentially represents a further integration of social protection into our governance approach.

However, justifiably, or not, several sceptics and analysts are not yet convinced about the effectiveness and transparency of the government apex humanitarian and social protection institution and its programmes. Another concern is the level of involvement of the federal government in the operational aspects of social protection. Many observers are of the opinion that social protection and humanitarian effort at the grassroots level is better handled by state and local governments, given their proximity to the people. However, this is without prejudice to the important role of the federal government in co-funding and general oversight of the initiative.

The second objective enables a consolidation of the short-term humanitarian necessities with medium-term economic empowerment and development imperatives. This requires a second look at the current approach by state and federal governments towards realising Sustainable Development Goals, especially those that have direct implications on multi-dimensional poverty.

Currently, SDG-related policies and activities are coordinated at the national level by the Office of the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Sustainable Development Goals (OSSAP-SDGs). The office works closely with the Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) through the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs Disaster Management & Social Development to mainstream the SDGs into the sectoral policies and plans of the MDAs. However, a different approach that will ensure adequate traction is gained in realising SDG Goals and Targets that are critical to multi-dimensional poverty reduction is required. It may involve domiciling the OSSAP-SDG at the Ministry of National Budget and National Planning. This is to ensure that fiscal policy instruments such as the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) are informed by SDGs.

Beyond MTEF, the National Assembly needs to adopt poverty reduction as a major criterion for screening appropriation proposals from government agencies. This may require establishing the implication of policies, plans and budgets on the achievement of poverty related SDG goals and targets in quantitative and measurable terms. In this regard, the National Assembly needs to establish or engage the services a think-tank with the mandate of performing roles similar to that of the Congressional Budget Office in the US. The agency is expected to provide an independent analysis of budgetary and economic issues to support the National Assembly in the appropriation process. Another option is to expand the mandates of existing think-tanks in the country, provide them with institutional support, and link them with foreign national or intergovernmental agencies performing similar roles for technical assistance, where necessary.

However, desirable social outcomes are realised through diligent, transparent, and inclusive execution of well thought-through policies and programmes. This is where the “rubber meets the road”. Government at all levels must learn from community and rural development models that were deployed in the past, especially during the structural adjustment period of the late 80s to the mid – 90s. A review of these programmes may serve as an important source of perspective that can be integrated into emerging contemporary models of poverty reduction, leveraging advances in knowledge and technology.

On of the mistakes of the past that undermined the sustainability of grassroots development programmes was the lack of inclusive and participatory approaches in their design and implementation. The government must find ways to include beneficiaries in the design and implementation process by leveraging existing institutional arrangements or “structures”.

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I was privileged to be the keynote speaker at the GTPro “Conversation Series” that took place on the 2nd of February, 2023.
GTPro is Nigeria’s premier government relations and political risk management consultancy outfit with the objective of developing and implementing strategic and operational solutions for the private sector in their effort to navigate the complexities of the public policy and regulatory landscape.
The theme for discussion was “Post-Election Scenario Assessment and Possible Political Risks: How Businesses Can Mitigate It”.

The following insights and perspectives represent a summary of my submissions that formed the basis for the highly interactive session among policy makers, regulators, senior corporate executives on the day.

Scenarios are complex, dynamic, interactive stories told from a future perspective. Without a doubt, the uncertainty around future events such as the up-coming elections provides the baseline for exploratory scenario analysis, a tool for integrating changes and uncertainties in the external context into overall strategy.

Today it ranks among the top ten management tools in the world in terms of usage. It involves the rigor of identifying a specific set of uncertainties regarding what might happen in the future while offering diverse possibilities.

Scenario analyses stretch our imaginations, beyond the boundaries of history, and without the constraint of experience. It invites the “audience” to react to a plausible set of events, or to build the future events themselves, and then test these against a range of criteria.

Scenario Analysis is intricately connected to Risk Assessment through the triplet definition of risks that involves possibilities of events, probabilities of occurrence, and severity or implication of occurrences on business, political or social objectives.

There are no debates on the fact that the Nigerian electoral season exposes the business community and investors in Nigerian economy to political risks. Political conditions, decisions, events such as elections have the ability to affect business objectives in the short or long term

This is because political conditions, decisions, events such as elections have the ability to affect business objectives in the short or long term.
The channel of impact of these risks on businesses could be operational which includes logistics impairment, supply chain disruptions, safety of staff, energy supply, or IT disruptions. They could also be visible through impact on revenues and other indicator of financial performance in the short or long term.

In order to navigate through these potential adverse conditions, businesses are encouraged to proactively integrate resilience building systems and processes such as Business Continuity Management, Emergency Management Systems, Crisis Management Systems into their culture and operations.

Scenarios development is the first step in resilience building. Diverse and alternative scenarios emerge from the face-off between driving political, social and economic forces that aims to alter or change an established order and institutional barriers and systems seeking to protect or reinforce it.

Alternative scenarios likely to emerge from the above interactions were represented in my submission with the literary works of three renowned African writers – The Beautyful Ones Are Not Yet Born (by Ghanaian novelist Ayi Kwei Armah), The Gods Are Not to Blame (by Nigerian playwright Ola Rotimi), and Season of Anomy (by Nigeria’s Wole Soyinka).

“The beautiful ones are not yet born” is a scenario in which the electorate is wearied by the brit—bats among politician and the heightened tension in the political atmosphere. Voters do not see a significant difference between the candidates and are therefore more concerned with their immediate survival needs.

Fuel scarcity persists till election day in most parts of the country and is further complicated by scarcity of the hardship in gaining access to the newly redesigned naira notes.

A combination of these circumstances leads to lower-than-expected election day turn-out. Although the sentiments towards change influenced electoral decisions among those that turned out, it only led to a swap of one establishment party for another.

Tendencies towards violence are easily rebuffed by the law enforcement agents as the institutional barriers and systems were not compromised by the interaction with driving political and social forces.

However, Post-election suspense is heightened by legal contests which drags on until the electoral victory is sustained by Supreme Court on legal technicalities.

In “The gods are not to blame” scenario, the electorate is frustrated and angered by pre-existing adverse conditions. Although the fuel scarcity abates and access to new currency improves, the general public is yet to recover from the harrowing experience.

Voters turn out in large numbers across the country with religion and feelings towards the outgoing administration in the South East and North Central geopolitical zones serving as a catalyst.

However, votes against the ruling party are divided by the opposition in key battleground states thereby paving way for the ruling party to have a clear majority.

The discontent about the outcome from majority of the population including the End SARS constituency and SE-SS voters creates an overwhelming pressure on institution barriers and systems including law enforcement.

However, a moderating influence is the statesmanship of opposition figures and judicial process.

Post-election suspense is heightened by legal contests until electoral victory is sustained on legal technicalities.

The last scenario is named the “Season of Anomy”. In this scenario, pre-existing conditions generate pressure on institutional barriers and systems. However, turn-out on election date is lower than expected incumbent strongholds and higher in opposition stronghold.

However, the relatively higher population in incumbent strongholds moderated the heavy margins suffered in opposition strong holds.

Majority of the votes are against the ruling party with third party candidate challenging established parties in key battle ground states while holding to its geopolitical and demographic base.

The well-known establishment parties’ loose grounds to third party candidate leading to inability of frontliners to attain constitutional requirements for victory. New alliances emerge across the political landscape, although with ethnic colorations.

Rerun election produces victory for the establishment opposition, these tensions drag on post-election as results are challenged in court.

The Supreme Court upturns the election in an unprecedented move in Nigeria. The agitation for secession resumes in the SE while some other agents subtly advocate for a coup de tat or unrealistic constitutional amendments.

The unbearable tension leads to disruptions to normal live. The international community and institutions with moral authority wades in and a new President is sworn in to preside over a badly fractured and fragile country.

Having explored the likely scenarios, it is important to open the discussion on options available to businesses to engender their resilience under the various circumstances. Two of our scenarios (“The gods are not to blame” and “Season of Anomy” exists within the “Elevated” and “High” risk context in terms of likelihood of disruptions and violence with potential impact on operations, profitability people and asset.

These creates the necessity for businesses to develop Business Continuity Plans that also integrates Emergency management systems.

Many businesses operate the ISO301 (2019 version) guidance and requirements to plan, establish, implement, operate, monitor, review, maintain and continually improve a documented management system to protect against, reduce the likelihood of occurrence, prepare for, respond to, and recover from disruptive incidents when they arise.

A business continuity management system is a management system that bundles interrelated methods, procedures and rules to ensure that critical business processes keep running in the event of damage or emergencies and continuously develops and improves them.

It relies on a business impact analysis (BIA) to identify the essential processes, critical activities and their dependencies. Subsequently, Maximum Tolerable Period of Disruption (MTPD) is established and Recovery Time Objectives (RTOs) for critical activities and priorities are determined. Processes and Procedures are that enable the achievement of RTOs are then documented.

The creation of a continuity plan assures that company leaders can react quickly and efficiently to business interruption.

Emergency Management System is needed in all of the scenarios discussed. It is linked to Business Continuity Plans (BCPs) and it also draws from scenario planning, risk assessment and business impact analysis.

The emergency management programs reflect company values and enable companies to comply with applicable government regulations and international standards on labour relations and responsible business conduct.

Each business unit is expected to interpret the corporate emergency management policy into its operational context.

Key aspect of Emergency management includes emergency preparedness, emergency response and emergency recovery.

The Emergency Preparedness Plan is a scenario-based tool for planning response to potential emergencies and to ensure that adequate arrangements are made in anticipation of a crisis.

The goal of the Emergency Preparedness Planning is to facilitate an appropriate, timely and effective response. Emergency plans should be widely communicated within the organization and to local authorities.

A common and recommended practice is the use of “Drills” to bring plans that have been developed to life. Experience from drills serves as input into capacity building efforts for staff and management on emergency management.

The second component of Corporate is Emergency Response which is the immediate reaction to an emergency situation focusing on ensuring life safety, minimizing property damage and reducing the severity of an incident.

The existence of an emergency preparedness plan provides a framework for smooth take-off and operations of the Emergency Response Co-ordination Centre.

The third component is Emergency Recovery. It involves implementing prioritized actions that are required to return a process and its support functions to operational stability following an interruption.

In conclusion, surviving and thriving in the scenarios described above with respect to political risks associated with the upcoming elections is largely dependent on the culture being promoted by the leadership of business entities including the Board and Senior Management.

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